Mombasa Tricycle Battery Swap Offer¶
ADR 0005 step 5.4 deliverable. Every number below is generated from the BU
objects (models/bu_*.py) through the uniform output matrix — one
convention applied across the board. PENDING items are assumptions
awaiting your input; corrections land on this consistent baseline.
The offer in one line¶
A Mombasa motor-taxi operator swapping batteries instead of buying petrol saves $3.81/day (78%) at a \(0.99/swap tariff (\)0.29/kWh normalized) — payback on the vehicle investment is 643 days.
Rider sheet (Bajaj operator, per day)¶
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Daily distance (PENDING) | 80 km |
| Daily petrol cost | $4.86 |
| Daily electric cost (swap tariff) | $1.05 |
| Daily saving | $3.81 (78.3%) |
| Cost / km — petrol vs electric | $0.061 vs $0.013 |
| Vehicle investment (PENDING) | $2450 |
| Payback | 643 days |
Tariff band (rider daily saving vs swap price)¶
| Normalized $/kWh | Swap price (3.4 kWh) | Rider daily saving |
|---|---|---|
| $0.25 | $0.91 | $3.95 |
| $0.29 | $1.05 | $3.81 |
| $0.33 | $1.20 | $3.66 |
| $0.37 | $1.35 | $3.52 |
| $0.41 | $1.49 | $3.37 |
Break-even tariff (rider saving = 0): \(1.339/kWh** = **\)4.55/swap. Above this price the rider is better off on petrol — the offer's hard ceiling.
Ecosystem matrix (uniform rows, same convention for every BU)¶
| Row | RIDER | SNS | BCS | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| capex_usd | 2,450.00 | 9,600.00 | 158.60 | 88,576.71 |
| daily_revenue_usd | — | 165.16 | 2.64 | 285.60 |
| daily_cost_usd | 1.05 | 148.97 | 1.59 | 99.94 |
| daily_net_usd | 3.81 | 16.19 | 1.05 | 185.66 |
| breakeven_days | 643.10 | 592.83 | 150.42 | 477.10 |
| margin_pct | — | 9.80 | 39.94 | 65.01 |
BCS break-even demand: 0.53 swaps/day per battery (base fleet config) — the minimum utilization the station must sustain.
Pending inputs (owner decisions)¶
- Bajaj/tricycle duty-paid procurement price (using $2,450)
- Motor-taxi realistic daily km in Mombasa (using 80 km)
- Petrol price anchor (using $1.52/L)
- Intended swap price or rider affordability ceiling (band tested $0.91–1.49/swap)
- Battery capacity per swap (using 3.4 kWh, base-case battery)
What this page is not¶
- Not the v12-verified consolidated number (oracle armed, workbook pending).
- Not capacity-constrained: station capacity limits are a Phase 5.4+ coupling item.